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Sharp Fall Expected for
Construction in 2012
Construction output is forecast to fall by more than 5% next year and remain flat throughout 2013 according to the latest forecasts, published by the Construction Products Association. It will be 2014 before the industry is expected to see any significant signs of recovery, by which time output will be 12% lower than at its peak in 2007.
Commenting on these forecasts, (right) Michael Ankers (retiring) the Chief Executive of the Construction Products Association said: “For the construction industry to return to growth there needs to be a strong private sector recovery, but this is just not happening. Continuing uncertainty about the future of the euro zone and a lack of consumer confidence in the UK are holding back important investment decisions. As a result the largest area of construction activity - private commercial work- is forecast to fall by a further 5% in 2012 and remain at that level in 2013.
“At the same time the cuts in public sector construction activity are really beginning to bite, with construction work on schools, hospitals, and other non-housing work forecast to fall by 23% compared with 2011. Despite the encouraging announcements on public sector investment on infrastructure projects in the Autumn Statement, capital spending on construction will still fall 30% by 2013.
“Although new housing starts in the private sector are set to continue their slow recovery, in the short term these are more than offset by the sharp fall in public sector housing. As a result the number of new homes started in 2012 is forecast to be 5000 fewer than this year, and at just 113,000 this is less than half the number of homes needed to accommodate the additional number of households expected to be created over the next 12 months.”
Other key findings in the Forecasts include:
- Public Sector construction to fall 18% between 2011 and 2014
- Education construction to fall by one quarter in 2012
- Health construction to decrease 15% in 2012
- Infrastructure construction to rise 20% by 2015
- Energy construction to increase threefold by 2015
Construction Products Association Announces Appointment of New Chief Executive
Dr Diana Montgomery, (left) who is currently the Deputy Chief Executive at the Chemical Industries Association, has been appointed as the new Chief Executive of the Construction Products Association. She will take over from Michael Ankers who retires at the Association’s AGM in April.
Diana graduated from Oxford University with a chemistry degree and was subsequently awarded a Doctor of Philosophy for her work on Environment and Waste Resources at the Imperial College, London. Before joining the CIA in 2006 she was Group Head of Environment at Centrica, and prior to that worked with the Automobile Association and Johnson Wax.
Commenting on the appointment, the Association’s Chairman, Bill Bolsover, said; ‘I am delighted that we have been able to appoint such a strong candidate to take over as the Association’s Chief Executive. Diana brings a wealth of relevant experience to this role and we look forward to her leading the Association and taking forward the strategic development programme that we developed last year.’
Diana Montgomery said of her appointment; ‘I am delighted to have this opportunity to lead the Construction Products Association and relish the prospect of representing the construction products community at a time of great economic challenge and opportunity. Its members have a vital role to play in leading and sustaining our country’s economic recovery and helping the government to deliver its low carbon strategy.’
Construction Output Remains Subdued
In a further statement issued mid-January, the Construction Products Association said that latest figures from ONS for November Construction Output show no change from the low levels recorded in October. However, output is 1.6 per cent lower than in November 2010 when the industry was severely affected by bad weather.
Commenting on these figures, Noble Francis, Construction Products Association Economics Director said: ‘Construction output remains extremely subdued having fallen for three of the previous four months and output in the fourth quarter of the year is now likely to fall, mirroring the recent disappointing economic news from the manufacturing sector.
‘The recovery in private sector construction is still very sluggish and with the anticipated sharp falls in public spending on construction in 2012, the industry is now expected to see a fall in output of over 5 per cent this year, with no sign of recovery until 2014.’
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